Tuesday, September 6, 2011

If the current energy profile of the world is sustained what impact will it have on the environment?

Even though the recession that began in 2008 caused short term energy consumption to decline by a total of 3.4% from 2008-2009, the long term trend is rising. With China and India growing in the industrial market, global energy consumption is rising faster now than in years past & continued growth is projected.

Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption (quadrillion Btu)

(EECD stands for: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)

World marketed energy consumption increases by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 in the Reference case. Total energy demand in non-OECD countries increases by 84 percent, compared with an increase of 14 percent in OECD countries.

http://205.254.135.24/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html

The main concern caused by our continued rise in energy usage from fossil fuels is the emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere and the imbalance of the amount that is created.

Today, there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than at any time in the last 800,000 years. Studies of the Earth’s climate history show that even small changes in CO2 levels generally have come with significant shifts in the global average temperature.
Scientists expect that, in the absence of effective policies to reduce greenhouse gas pollution, the global average temperature will increase, on the low end, 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit , and on the high end, 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.


The carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere where it remains for 100 to 200 years. This leads to an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere (see above on the right hand side), which in turn causes the average temperature on Earth to raise (see graph below).



Figure 2. Increase of global average temperature for the last 20 years (source: wri.org)

Recent investigations have shown that inconceivable catastrophic changes in the environment will take place if the global temperatures increase by more than 2° C (3.6° F). A warming of 2° C (3.6° F) corresponds to a carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of about 450 ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere.
As of beginning of 2007, the CO2 concentration is already at 380 ppm and it raises on average 2 - 3 ppm each year, so that the critical value will be reached in approximately 20 to 30 years from now.


Global warming leads to the ice caps melting, ocean levels rising, and the PH levels in our water sources changing. This has a negative effect on the eco-sytem and endangers wildlife and can eventually destroy our environment, therefore endangering human existance. 
Figure 3. Means nothing! Just poking fun at people's emotions.

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